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Transition 2008: What to Expect?
Clues from Recent First-Term Presidential Transitions
Transition teams for both Senators McCain and Obama are ready to get to work on November 5, and the guessing game on major appointments has already begun. To guide the prognosticators, the Center has taken a look at recent first-term presidential transitions for some clues as to when, and how, the next administration may appoint the individuals who will be most critical to shaping U.S. global engagement.
Senator McCain has identified former Navy Secretary John Lehman Jr. and long-time Washington insider William E. Timmons Sr. to head up his transition efforts, while Senator Obama will be relying on John Podesta, former Clinton White House Chief of Staff and now head of the Center for American Progress. The President-elect faces the challenge of selecting some 30 people to serve in his cabinet and as his top White House staff BEFORE the January 20 inauguration. Not to mention the added challenge of the first transfer of government since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. To facilitate the process, new legislation since 9/11 allows both candidates, after they have been formally nominated, to submit a number of requests for security clearance for prospective transition-team members. The Washington Post, noting that in the past several transition team members have moved into top jobs requiring Senate confirmation, suggests this legislation should speed up nominations process. To help smooth the transition process, the Bush Administration has set up a Presidential Transition Coordinating Council, chaired by White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolton and including a number of top Administration officials. As Center board member Dr. Norm Ornstein explains, the Council is designed to ensure that key information is shared and that senior officials are vetted more quickly than in the past.
Appointments. Each of the recent first-term presidential transitions has had a different strategy for appointments, including the order of announcements. Some unusual strategies include President Richard Nixon’s choice to introduce all 12 of his departmental secretaries on the same day, and President Jimmy Carter’s choice to announce his cabinet before most of his White House staff.
Presidential Appointments Timeline
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As a general rule of thumb, a 2001 study by the Brookings Institution suggests that the major White House staff positions —including Chief of Staff and National Security Advisor— be named before Thanksgiving, and that Cabinet secretaries— with priority being Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Treasury, along with the Director of the Office of Budget and Management— be named by December 24th. However, with the economic crisis and two active wars abroad, this timetable is likely to be accelerated. We can expect the President –elect to name first his top economic team – including Treasury, OMB, and Chair of the National Economic Council --just as President Clinton did in 1992 to indicate his priority on economics. It is also likely that the top national security and foreign affairs posts will be named early, before Thanksgiving, perhaps in tandem with the economic team. Clay Johnson, Executive Director of the Bush-Cheney transition in 2000, also suggests the President-elect should name his Chief of Staff within just a few days after the election.
Confirmations. Top Cabinet positions, particularly for national security and the economy, also tend to be confirmed the same day as their nomination or very soon after, to ensure a smooth transition. Nearly all Cabinet members are confirmed by the end of January while other top officials have taken longer to confirm, increasing from an average of 2 months under Kennedy to closer to 10 months for the past two presidencies. There are approximately 1,100 positions that require Senate confirmation. As Clay Johnson described, “No previous Administration has confirmed more than 25 cabinet and subcabinet personnel by April 1”. Confirmation hearings have ranged a 20 minute session, as many did under President Nixon, to months, especially if the initial appointment is shot down -- as was President George H. Bush’s initial nomination for Secretary of Defense.
Historically, the Administrator of USAID has been announced after the President takes office, with President George W. Bush announcing this post on February 21st and President William Clinton announcing on April 5th. However, both President Bush and President Clinton regularly brought future appointees on as consultants to their future agency after submitting their nominations to the Senate. Given both presidential candidates’ stated emphasis on elevating development as a national security imperative, it would send an important signal to announce his choice for the top development post as close to the Secretaries of Defense and State as possible.
Holdovers? Senior national security advisors to both Senators Obama and McCain both have praised current Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and indicated the possibility that he might be asked to stay on in his post to provide continuity, at least for 6 months to a year. And given the economy, there’s been some speculation that Secretary Henry Paulson could also be asked to stay on for a short while in an attempt to calm the markets – although both candidates clearly have a strong interest in signaling a fresh break with the current Administration’s economic policy.
Stay tuned to www.usglobalengagement.org for more updates as the Center continues to track the transition and appointments process.
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